Asylum Applications Decline in EU and Germany, Revealing Complex Migration Trends

Asylum applications in the European Union and Germany are showing a notable decline, but the numbers don't tell the whole story. While overall figures are down, shifts in demographics, policy changes, and evolving geopolitical situations are creating a complex and dynamic migration landscape. The decrease in applications reflects both stricter immigration policies and changing patterns of displacement, requiring a nuanced understanding of the factors at play.

Germany's Shifting Position

For years, Germany has been the leading European country for asylum applications. However, recent data indicates a significant shift. In 2024, Germany saw a 30% decrease in applications compared to 2023, with 237,000 applications registered, according to the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA). This is approximately 92,000 fewer applications than the 334,000 recorded in 2023. This trend has continued into 2025. A confidential EU report revealed that Germany received 37,387 asylum requests between January and March 2025, a 41% decrease compared to the same period last year. This decline has positioned Germany behind France and Spain in the number of applications received. In February 2025, France (13,080) and Spain (12,975) both recorded more applications than Germany (12,775). The number of asylum applications filed in Germany continued to fall in March 2025 to 10,647, a 45.3 percent decrease compared to March 2024.

Broader European Trends

The decline in asylum applications is not limited to Germany. Across the EU, Norway, and Switzerland, the total number of asylum requests has dropped by 19% year-on-year, totaling 210,641. In 2024, the EU+ (European Union plus Switzerland and Norway) saw an 11% decrease in asylum applications, with approximately 1,014,000 applications received. Several of the main countries of origin for asylum applicants have recorded significant decreases. Applications from Syrians, Afghans, and Turks decreased by 17%, 24%, and 45%, respectively, compared to 2023.

Changing Demographics

While applications from some countries are decreasing, others are on the rise, leading to a shift in the demographics of asylum seekers. Venezuelans, for example, are comprising a larger group of applicants. In the first quarter of 2025, Venezuelans accounted for the largest group of applicants in Europe, with 25,375 applications, representing 12% of the total. Applications from Venezuelans have surged by 44%. Conversely, applications from Syrians have plummeted by 56%, alongside significant declines from Colombia and Turkey. In 2024, Venezuelans lodged a record number of applications, up by around a tenth (9%) compared to 2023. Many Venezuelans are applying for asylum in Italy, becoming the second most populous citizenship among applicants in that country. Despite the decrease in applications from Syrians, they remained the top nationality applying for asylum in EU countries in 2024, with around 151,000 applications, accounting for 15% of the total.

Factors Influencing the Decline

Several factors contribute to the decline in asylum applications. Stricter immigration policies implemented in recent years across Europe have played a significant role. Acting Federal Minister of the Interior Nancy Faeser emphasized that irregular migration to Europe had been significantly reduced “thanks to a strong package of measures, action taken by Germany itself, and close European cooperation”. The EU is also implementing tougher deportation rules and stricter controls to speed up the return of rejected asylum seekers and other migrants who don't have a right to stay in the EU. Agreements with North African countries aimed at preventing migrants from reaching Europe are also part of Europe's recent anti-migration policy. The decrease in applications from specific countries may also be influenced by changing circumstances in those countries. For example, the number of asylum applications from Syrians has decreased as some have chosen to withdraw their applications and return to Syria following the fall of the Assad regime. However, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has cautioned against this trend, urging Syrians to remain in their host countries until the situation in Syria stabilizes.

Implications and Challenges

The decline in asylum applications presents both opportunities and challenges for the EU and Germany. On one hand, it may alleviate some of the strain on resources and infrastructure. On the other hand, it raises concerns about the protection of vulnerable individuals and the potential for increased irregular migration. As discussions surrounding migration policies continue in Germany, local governments are advocating for stricter measures. The German Association of Cities and Municipalities has voiced its expectations for the incoming government to manage illegal immigration more effectively, highlighting that the influx of four million migrants over the past decade has strained resources. The EU is also grappling with the need for a fair distribution of refugees across member states. The new European asylum system (CEAS) is intended to better protect the EU's external borders and achieve a fair distribution of refugees in the EU in the long term.

A Shifting Landscape

The decline in asylum applications in the EU and Germany reflects a complex interplay of factors, including policy changes, shifting demographics, and evolving geopolitical situations. While the numbers may be down, the underlying challenges remain. Ensuring the protection of vulnerable individuals, managing migration flows, and integrating refugees into society are ongoing tasks that require a comprehensive and coordinated approach. As the political climate surrounding migration evolves, the future of asylum policies in Germany and the EU remains uncertain, with calls for a balanced and sustainable approach to migration. The upcoming government will have to address these pressing challenges to ensure a fair and effective system for all.