Brazil Holds Presidential Election as Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro Run Close
Voters in Latin America's largest democracy cast ballots in a high-stakes presidential contest that opinion surveys suggest will head to an October runoff.
Incumbent leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and conservative Senator Flavio Bolsonaro faced voters across Brazil on Oct. 4 in the first round of the 2026 presidential election. Public opinion surveys leading up to election day showed both contenders running close, leaving neither candidate positioned to secure an outright majority.
The race pits the 80-year-old president against the 45-year-old eldest son of former right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro. The elder Bolsonaro cannot run after courts convicted him of plotting a coup following his 2022 defeat to Lula. Flavio Bolsonaro is running on the Liberal Party ticket, while Lula represents the Workers' Party as he seeks a fourth non-consecutive term.
Recent polling showed Lula holding a modest advantage in the first round. Datafolha reported on Oct. 2 that Lula led Bolsonaro 45% to 40% in valid first-round votes. Other candidates, including Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado, polled in single digits. Datafolha also reported a statistical tie for a projected runoff, with Lula drawing 48% support and Bolsonaro 45%. Both leading candidates carried rejection rates of about 45% to 50%.
The campaign unfolded alongside voter concerns regarding the economy, security and institutional integrity. Bolsonaro used recent controversies regarding Supreme Court ethics to energize his base. Lula pointed to social and economic policies from his third term while campaigning against external political and trade pressure.
Electoral authorities will tally the electronic ballots following the close of voting on Oct. 4. If no contender secures more than 50% of the valid vote, the two leading candidates advance to a runoff scheduled for Oct. 25.
