Ethiopian Rebel Coalition Forms as Fragile Tigray Peace Agreement Unravels
Renewed clashes and an armed coalition targeting the federal government threaten regional stability across the Horn of Africa as diplomatic mediation efforts stall.
Seven Ethiopian armed movements established a coalition aimed at ousting Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, following renewed clashes between federal forces and Tigrayan fighters. The developments reflect the collapse of the November 2022 Pretoria peace agreement as diplomatic mediation attempts falter.
The coalition, named the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, includes the Tigray People's Liberation Front, known as the TPLF, and the Amhara Fano militia. It also features the Oromo Liberation Army and groups from Afar, Somali, and Benishangul-Gumuz. Amhara Fano leader Zemene Kassie announced the alliance in a broadcast on Tigray television.
The alliance unites factions that fought bitterly against each other in the 2020 to 2022 northern war. Fano fighters previously supported federal forces against the TPLF. Fano subsequently launched an insurgency against the government in 2023.
Alliance leaders said they plan to replace the federal government with an inclusive transitional administration. TPLF spokesman Michael Asgedom stated that joint military operations could follow, adding that the 2022 peace accord is no longer valid.
Government officials pushed back against the coalition. Abiy's spokesperson Billene Seyoum said the groups had collaborated for months with financial backing from neighbouring Eritrea. Asmara has denied previous accusations of involvement in Ethiopian internal conflicts.
Fighting resumed in northern Ethiopia in recent weeks. TPLF units seized regional airports previously guarded by federal police, prompting Ethiopian Airlines to suspend flights to three northern cities. The Tigray regional government then declared that it had entered a new war against federal authorities.
Diplomats and international observers expressed alarm over the multi-front escalation. Magnus Taylor of the International Crisis Group warned that coordinating multiple rebel groups could trigger broader fighting across Ethiopia and destabilize neighboring countries.
The Pretoria agreement previously stopped two years of conflict that killed an estimated 600,000 people and displaced more than 1 million. However, key disputes, including control of Western Tigray, remained unresolved.
The African Union and international partners are urging both the federal government and regional opposition groups to halt military operations and return to negotiations.
