Horn of Africa on Edge as Tensions Flare Between Ethiopia, Tigray, and Eritrea

ADDIS ABABA – The fragile peace in the Horn of Africa teeters on the brink as Ethiopia faces a perilous resurgence of tensions with its northern Tigray region and neighboring Eritrea. Barely three years after the signing of the landmark Pretoria Agreement that formally ended a devastating two-year conflict in Tigray, reports of significant military mobilizations, diplomatic accusations, and renewed skirmishes signal a dangerous escalation that could plunge the region into another widespread humanitarian crisis. The international community watches with growing alarm as underlying grievances and unfulfilled peace deal provisions threaten to unravel the tenuous calm, risking a return to full-scale warfare.

Fragile Foundations of a Ceasefire Unravel

The November 2022 Pretoria Agreement, hailed as a monumental step towards peace, brought an end to open warfare between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). The accord allowed for the gradual resumption of humanitarian access and basic services in Tigray, which had been severely impacted by the conflict. However, recent assessments suggest that this agreement delivered "negative peace," characterized by the absence of open combat rather than a durable political settlement. Systematic failures to fully implement core provisions have left deep fault lines unresolved, raising concerns about the long-term stability of Ethiopia and the wider Horn of Africa.

The signs of renewed instability are stark. Both Ethiopia and Eritrea are reportedly undertaking large-scale military mobilizations along their shared borders. The Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) has repositioned troops and heavy equipment towards northern Ethiopia, while Eritrea has deployed additional units of the Eritrean Defence Forces (EDF) to its southern frontier. These movements, described by observers as preparations for potential confrontation rather than defensive posturing, have dramatically escalated fears of renewed conflict. In late January, renewed clashes erupted in the Tselemti district of Northwestern Tigray, marking the first significant active hostilities between federal and Tigrayan forces since the Pretoria Agreement. The spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General, Stéphane Dujarric, has warned of these renewed tensions in Tigray and the "risk of a return to wider conflict" in a region still grappling with reconstruction.

Unresolved Chapters: Eritrea's Role and Contested Lands

A critical factor undermining the peace is Eritrea's continued, and reportedly expanding, involvement in Tigray. Eritrea, which allied with the Ethiopian government against the TPLF during the 2020-2022 war, was notably not a signatory to the Pretoria Agreement. Despite the peace deal, Eritrean forces reportedly continued attacks on Tigrayans throughout November and December 2022 and have maintained a presence in parts of the region. Recent reports indicate that Eritrean soldiers are not only massing troops in previously occupied areas but are also pushing deeper into Ethiopian territory. Ethiopia has responded with open accusations, with its Foreign Minister, Gedion Timotheos, accusing Eritrea of "military aggression" and supporting rebel groups. Asmara, for its part, has denied these claims.

Adding to the complexity are longstanding territorial disputes, particularly over Western Tigray. This region remains under the control of Amhara regional forces, despite calls for a constitutional resolution of the territorial dispute. The continued displacement of tens of thousands of Tigrayans from this area remains one of the most combustible unresolved issues within the peace framework. The Pretoria Agreement, while requiring the disarmament of Tigrayan forces and the restoration of constitutional order, has seen these politically sensitive elements stall. The interim administration in Tigray has also been plagued by internal divisions, with a power struggle within the TPLF between factions led by Debretsion Gebremichael and Getachew Reda. This internal discord poses a significant threat to the peace, particularly given that the Tigray Defense Force (TDF) reportedly numbers over 270,000 members and has not yet fully disarmed or demobilized.

A significant driver of the renewed tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea is Ethiopia's declared ambition to secure sovereign access to the Red Sea. This quest, publicly articulated by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, is viewed by Eritrea as a direct threat to its sovereignty and territorial integrity, especially regarding its Red Sea coastline, which Ethiopia lost following Eritrea's independence in 1993. This aspiration fuels Eritrean fears of a potential Ethiopian invasion to seize a port like Assab.

Dire Humanitarian Consequences and Regional Ripple Effects

The re-escalation of tensions carries devastating implications for millions of civilians already reeling from years of conflict, drought, and economic hardship. The previous war resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths and displaced over two million people, with one million internally displaced individuals from Tigray still unable to return home. The humanitarian situation in Tigray remains dire, characterized by limited access to basic services, underfunded reconstruction efforts, and a growing fear of famine. Reports indicate that renewed fighting is already driving people to leave the Tigray region.

A full-blown resumption of hostilities would inevitably trigger mass displacement, disrupt critical humanitarian corridors, and collapse fragile recovery efforts across the northern regions of Ethiopia. Beyond Ethiopia's borders, such a conflict would further destabilize an already volatile Horn of Africa, a region grappling with the ongoing war in Sudan, insecurity in Somalia, and chronic fragility in South Sudan. The interconnectedness of regional crises means that a conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea could easily draw in other actors, potentially leading to proxy wars and broader instability impacting trade routes, migration flows, and diplomatic balances.

International Appeals and Elusive Mediation

The international community, including the UN, the European Union, and the United States, has expressed profound concern over the escalating situation, appealing to all parties for de-escalation and unimpeded humanitarian access. UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk has specifically warned of a potential deepening crisis across the region. However, there is a growing sentiment that international influence and interest in the region have waned in recent years, hindering effective mediation efforts. The African Union, despite its theoretical positioning to play a key role, has struggled to ensure the parties' full commitment to the Pretoria Agreement. Eritrea, notably, has so far resisted Ethiopia's calls for dialogue, leaving a void in serious efforts to establish negotiations.

While both Ethiopia and Eritrea possess reasons to avoid a large-scale, open conflict—Ethiopia battling internal insurgencies and financial pressures, and Eritrea's system relying on tight internal control—the risk of limited clashes and accidental escalation remains high. Influential African states, alongside international partners, are urged to engage in quiet diplomacy and establish back channels to address the deep-seated grievances of all sides. The current trajectory, marked by military posturing, unaddressed core issues from the Pretoria Agreement, and a looming humanitarian catastrophe, points to a powder keg situation in the Horn of Africa, demanding urgent and concerted diplomatic intervention to avert a catastrophic return to war.