Myanmar Parties Poised to Extend Earthquake Truce Amid Ongoing Conflict

Myanmar's warring factions are considering extending a ceasefire initially established to facilitate aid delivery following a devastating earthquake in late March. The move comes as Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim spearheads regional efforts to de-escalate the conflict and ensure humanitarian access to affected areas. The potential extension offers a glimmer of hope for the strife-torn nation, which has been grappling with a brutal civil war since the military coup in February 2021.

Malaysian PM's Diplomatic Push

Anwar Ibrahim, in his capacity as chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), has engaged in a flurry of diplomatic activity to broker a ceasefire extension. He held talks with both the leader of the military junta, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, and representatives of the National Unity Government (NUG), Myanmar's shadow government. These rare outreach efforts aim to bridge the deep divide between the warring parties and prioritize the delivery of humanitarian aid to those affected by the earthquake.

"There will be a ceasefire and no unnecessary provocations, because otherwise the whole humanitarian exercise would fail," Anwar told reporters in Bangkok on Friday. He characterized his initial exchanges with both the State Administration Council (SAC) and the NUG as "very successful," signaling a potential breakthrough in the stalled peace process.

Earthquake Diplomacy

A 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck Myanmar in late March, killing over 3,600 people and exacerbating the already dire humanitarian situation. In the wake of the disaster, both the junta and the NUG declared a 20-day ceasefire to allow aid to reach affected communities. However, reports from the United Nations and other organizations indicate that military operations have continued in some areas despite the declared truce.

The "Quad" nations – Japan, the United States, Australia, and India – have also welcomed the initial ceasefire commitments and called for their extension and broadening to ensure the safe and timely delivery of humanitarian aid throughout Myanmar.

A Nation in Crisis

Myanmar has been mired in a multi-faceted crisis since the military ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021. The coup triggered widespread protests and a civil war between the military, pro-democracy groups, and various ethnic armed organizations. The conflict has resulted in mass displacement, poverty, and a severe humanitarian crisis.

As of early March 2025, the UN Refugee Agency estimates that over 3.5 million people are internally displaced within Myanmar. The UN's humanitarian appeal for Myanmar in 2025 seeks $1.1 billion to support 5.5 million people, though nearly 20 million are projected to be in need of assistance.

The civil war has also taken a heavy toll on the civilian population. To April 2025, at least 6,486 civilians have been killed during the conflict, including 1,494 women and 751 children, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners.

Challenges to Peace

Despite the diplomatic efforts and the potential ceasefire extension, significant challenges remain in achieving lasting peace in Myanmar. Deep mistrust between the military and various ethnic armed organizations has led to the collapse of previous ceasefire agreements. The resistance seeks a decentralized system that grants ethnic states genuine autonomy, a demand that no ceasefire agreement has yet addressed.

The military junta, while expressing willingness to engage with ASEAN, has continued military operations in some areas, raising concerns about its commitment to a genuine ceasefire. The NUG, while welcoming ASEAN's engagement, has urged that aid not be sent to the junta, arguing that it only controls a small portion of the country.

Regional and International Involvement

The crisis in Myanmar has drawn in regional and international actors, each with their own interests and approaches. ASEAN has been attempting to mediate the conflict through its Five-Point Consensus, which calls for an immediate cessation of violence, dialogue among all parties, and humanitarian access. However, the junta's failure to fully comply with the plan has led to its exclusion from ASEAN summits and meetings.

China, Myanmar's most important foreign ally, has also played a role in mediating ceasefires between the junta and ethnic rebel groups, particularly in the northern regions bordering China. However, some analysts believe that China's mediation is driven more by economic interests and border stability than by a genuine commitment to resolving Myanmar's civil war.

Uncertain Future

As Myanmar enters its fifth year of conflict, the future remains uncertain. While the potential extension of the earthquake truce offers a temporary respite from the violence and an opportunity to deliver much-needed aid, it is unlikely to resolve the underlying political and ethnic tensions that fuel the conflict.

Most analysts believe that the military junta is in a difficult situation, having lost control of significant amounts of territory and facing widespread opposition. However, due to a lack of coordination among opposition groups and the junta's support from key allies, its collapse is considered unlikely.

The junta has announced plans to hold national elections in late 2025 and early 2026, but these elections are viewed with skepticism by many, as key political stakeholders are excluded and the conditions for a free and fair election are not in place.

Ultimately, achieving lasting peace in Myanmar will require a comprehensive political solution that addresses the root causes of the conflict, ensures the protection of human rights, and establishes a democratic and inclusive government. The extension of the earthquake truce represents a small step in that direction, but much more remains to be done.