South Sudan on the Brink: Fears of Renewed Civil War Rise Amidst Political Tensions and Ceasefire Violations

South Sudan, the world's youngest nation, is teetering on the edge of another civil war as escalating political tensions, persistent ceasefire violations, and a dire humanitarian crisis threaten to unravel the fragile peace established in 2018. Recent clashes between government forces and opposition factions, coupled with the reported arrest of First Vice President Riek Machar, have sparked widespread concerns about a return to full-scale conflict, potentially devastating the country and destabilizing the entire region.

A Fragile Peace Under Threat

The 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) brought an end to a brutal five-year civil war that claimed an estimated 400,000 lives. The agreement established a unity government between President Salva Kiir and his long-time rival, Riek Machar, with the aim of fostering stability and paving the way for democratic elections. However, the implementation of the peace agreement has been slow and fraught with challenges, leaving many key provisions unfulfilled.

Political tensions have significantly escalated since the beginning of 2025, jeopardizing the peace process and political transition. Clashes between the South Sudan People's Defense Forces (SSPDF), the state's official military force, and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLA/IO), the military wing of Machar's party, have intensified. Recent attacks, including a bombing on March 24, 2025, which targeted an SPLM-IO base in Wunaliet, have further heightened tensions and raised fears of a return to violence.

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) has raised alarm over escalating political tensions, particularly reports that First Vice President Riek Machar has been placed under house arrest. The regional body warns that these developments threaten to derail the R-ARCSS and could plunge the country back into violent conflict.

Ceasefire Violations and Escalating Violence

Despite the ceasefire agreement, violations have been rampant, further undermining the peace process. The Ceasefire and Transitional Security Arrangement Monitoring and Verification Mechanism (CTSAMVM) has expressed concerns over ongoing armed clashes between signatory parties in Western Equatoria and Western Bahr El Ghazal. These clashes have resulted in loss of life, injuries, and displacement among civilians and uniformed personnel.

Recent reports indicate a growing trend of localized violence that could destabilize the entire nation. Bombings in Ulang County, Upper Nile State, and Akobo County, Jonglei State, have targeted militia positions and convoys, exacerbating displacement and fueling insecurity in already volatile regions.

The United Nations Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan has warned of an "alarming regression" in the country, stating that recent clashes in the northeast threaten to undo years of progress towards peace. The commission has also condemned the deliberate targeting of opposition leaders and civilians, calling it a reckless disregard for international law and the country's future.

A Deepening Humanitarian Crisis

South Sudan is facing a dire humanitarian crisis, compounded by years of conflict, intercommunal violence, food insecurity, and the climate crisis. The arrival of hundreds of thousands fleeing conflict in Sudan, including South Sudanese refugee returnees, Sudanese, and other nationalities, has further strained already limited resources.

The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that 9.3 million people require humanitarian assistance in 2025, an increase of 300,000 from 2024. Over 1.8 million people remain internally displaced due to years of violence and the impact of climate change, including floods and dry spells.

Food insecurity is rampant, with 6.1 million people facing acute food insecurity levels at Crisis or higher between December 2024 and March 2025. Projections indicate that 7.7 million people will face acute food insecurity during the 2025 lean season. Malnutrition rates are surging, with 3.2 million children and women at risk of malnutrition, representing a 28 percent increase compared to 2024.

The humanitarian situation is further exacerbated by a cholera outbreak, with cases rapidly spreading nationwide. As of January 2025, 26,218 cases and 446 deaths have been reported across 32 counties.

Economic Instability and Political Challenges

South Sudan's economic crisis is exacerbating the already precarious situation. The country's reliance on oil revenue has left it vulnerable to fluctuating global oil prices, and recent declines in production have worsened the situation. Inflation is soaring, and public discontent is growing, fueled by economic mismanagement and corruption.

The conflict in Sudan has further deepened economic instability, as damage to an oil pipeline in conflict-affected areas of Sudan has disrupted South Sudan's oil exports, the most vital source of revenue for the country.

The political landscape is also fraught with challenges. The extension of the transitional period to December 2026 has been met with mixed reactions, with some supporting it as an opportunity to mitigate risks before elections and others expressing frustration with the government for delaying a democratic transition.

International Response and the Path Forward

The international community has expressed growing concern over the deteriorating situation in South Sudan. The UN Security Council has held closed consultations to discuss the situation, and several regional and international interlocutors have expressed alarm about the deteriorating security situation in the country.

The United Nations Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan has called for urgent, coordinated action to protect civilians and preserve the Revitalized Peace Agreement. The commission has urged regional and international partners, including the African Union, IGAD, and the United Nations, to urgently intensify diplomatic pressure, support de-escalation, and ensure full implementation of the Peace Agreement's provisions.

IGAD has also convened extraordinary summits and formed ministerial-level sub-committees to engage and monitor the restoration of calm and the implementation of the revitalized peace agreement.

To prevent a return to full-scale conflict, it is crucial that all parties recommit to the Revitalized Agreement, release political detainees, cease hostilities, and prioritize the protection of civilians. The international community must also intensify its efforts to support the peace process, address the humanitarian crisis, and promote economic stability in South Sudan.

A Nation at a Crossroads

South Sudan stands at a critical juncture in its history. The country's leaders must choose between relapsing into widespread conflict or taking the country forward towards peace, recovery, and democracy. The path forward requires a genuine commitment to the peace process, a willingness to address the root causes of conflict, and a focus on the needs and aspirations of the South Sudanese people. Failure to do so will have devastating consequences for the country and the region.