China Reclaims Top Trading Partner Status with Germany Amid Shifting Global Dynamics

BERLIN – China has once again surpassed the United States to become Germany's most significant trading partner, a shift solidified in 2025. This re-ordering of economic allegiances, primarily driven by a new wave of U.S. tariffs impacting German exports, marks a significant development in global trade relations and underscores the complex geopolitical tightropes major economies are walking. The Federal Statistical Office confirmed this development on February 20, 2026, revealing a pivotal year for German foreign trade.

The reversal comes after the U.S. briefly held the top position in 2024, interrupting China's eight-year streak as Germany's primary trading partner. The data for 2025 indicates a total foreign trade turnover between Germany and China reaching €251.8 billion, outpacing the €240.5 billion recorded with the United States. This re-ascension of China to the top spot highlights the enduring economic ties between Beijing and Berlin, even as Germany has expressed intentions to diversify its trade relationships.

The Shifting Tides of Trade

For nearly a decade, from 2016 to 2023, China consistently held the mantle as Germany's most important trading partner. However, 2024 saw the United States take the lead with a foreign trade turnover of €252.8 billion, marginally ahead of China's €246.3 billion. This temporary shift was attributed to a decline in German exports to China and a slight increase in trade with the U.S. The German Federal Statistical Office noted that while trade with the U.S. grew by 0.1% in 2024, trade with China declined by 3.1% compared to 2023.

However, the dynamics quickly reversed in 2025. Preliminary data for the first eight months of the year already hinted at China's return, with total trade between Germany and China amounting to €163.4 billion, narrowly exceeding the €162.8 billion with the U.S. By the end of the year, the full figures confirmed China's definitive lead, with a 2.1% increase in trade with Germany compared to the previous year, while trade with the U.S. saw a 5.0% decline.

Tariffs and Their Toll on Transatlantic Trade

A primary catalyst for China's resurgence as Germany's top trading partner has been the re-implementation of tariffs by the United States. Following the return of former President Donald Trump to the White House, a 15% tariff was imposed on most European Union exports to the U.S., effective August 1, 2025. This measure significantly impacted German exports, particularly in crucial sectors such as automotive, machinery, and chemicals.

German exports to the United States experienced a sharp downturn throughout 2025. In the first eight months, these exports fell by 7.4% compared to the same period in 2024, with an even steeper decline of 23.5% in August alone year-on-year. For the full year 2025, German exports to the U.S. decreased by 9.4%, amounting to €146.2 billion. The automotive industry was particularly hard hit, with exports of motor vehicles, trailers, and semi-trailers to the U.S. dropping by 17.8%. Experts and industry associations, including the Federation of German Wholesale, Foreign Trade and Services, have pointed directly to the U.S. tariff policy as a key factor behind this slump.

China's Enduring Gravitational Pull

Despite Germany's stated policy of "de-risking" and reducing its reliance on China due to concerns over political differences and unfair trade practices, economic realities appear to have pulled the two nations closer again. The decline in German exports to the U.S. was coupled with a notable increase in imports from China. Imports from China into Germany rose by 8.3% in the first eight months of 2025 and surged by 8.8% for the full year, reaching €170.6 billion.

This trend highlights Germany's continued industrial reliance on Chinese goods, including rare earths, semiconductors, and other essential input materials. While German exports to China also saw a decline, falling by 13.5% in the first eight months of 2025, the overall trade volume was bolstered by the robust import growth from China. China remains a vital market for German companies, particularly in mechanical engineering, automobiles, electrical engineering, and the chemical industry.

Navigating a Complex Geopolitical Landscape

The shift in trade dynamics has prompted a significant response from the German government. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has announced intentions to seek "strategic partnerships" with China, framing this move as a direct response to U.S. tariff policies and acknowledging the inseparable nature of foreign and economic policy. Merz underscored Germany's "strategic interest" in collaborating with global partners to secure future prosperity and social security.

Furthermore, Germany is actively reviewing its trade policies with China, particularly concerning "security-relevant" aspects. This includes examining energy, raw material imports, and Chinese investments in critical German infrastructure, with an expert committee slated to report to parliament. This dual approach reflects Germany's attempt to balance its significant economic interests with China against growing geopolitical concerns and the imperative of economic security. The situation also poses challenges for transatlantic relations, as Germany seeks to mitigate the economic repercussions of U.S. trade measures while navigating its long-standing alliance with Washington.

The re-establishment of China as Germany's leading trading partner in 2025 marks a complex juncture in global trade. It underscores the profound influence of protectionist measures, particularly from the United States, on international economic flows. For Germany, this means a continued, and in some respects deepening, economic interdependence with China, even as it seeks to diversify and enhance its economic resilience. The evolving trade landscape necessitates a delicate balancing act for Berlin, as it aims to protect its export-driven economy, secure vital supply chains, and define its role within a multipolar world order increasingly shaped by economic competition and geopolitical tensions.