Zambia's Opposition Navigates Post-Lungu Era Amidst Disarray and Internal Strife

LUSAKA, Zambia – Zambia's political landscape is experiencing a profound shift as the opposition grapples with the enduring absence of former President Edgar Lungu. Once a unifying, albeit polarizing, figure for the Patriotic Front (PF), Lungu's disqualification from the 2026 presidential race in December 2024 and his subsequent death in June 2025 have left a significant void, plunging the country's primary opposition party into disarray and raising critical questions about the future of multi-party democracy ahead of the pivotal general elections.

The challenges facing Zambia's opposition extend beyond the PF, with a fragmented field of parties struggling to coalesce around a common vision or strong leadership capable of effectively challenging the ruling United Party for National Development (UPND) under President Hakainde Hichilema. As internal power struggles intensify and external pressures mount, the ability of the opposition to serve as a robust check and balance on government power appears increasingly precarious.

The End of an Era: Lungu's Lasting Shadow

Edgar Lungu, who served as president from 2015 to 2021, was a central force in Zambian politics for nearly a decade. Despite losing the 2021 election to Hakainde Hichilema, Lungu initially remained an influential figure, even resuming his position as head of the Patriotic Front in 2023 after a brief retirement from active politics. His charisma, while divisive, proved instrumental in holding the PF together. The Constitutional Court's ruling in December 2024, which declared Lungu ineligible to contest the 2026 elections due to having already served two terms, fundamentally altered the opposition's trajectory. This judicial decision was followed by Lungu's passing in June 2025, an event that, according to analysts, left a vacuum within the PF and presented a significant test for the resilience of the weakening opposition. The PF's reliance on Lungu's "charismatic authority," rather than robust institutional structures or clearly defined policy platforms, meant his departure was bound to create instability.

A Fractured Front: Internal Strife within the PF

In the wake of Lungu's absence, the Patriotic Front finds itself deeply fractured and struggling to project a unified voice. The party, once Zambia's most formidable political force, is now described as confused and on the brink of political irrelevance. Leadership struggles have intensified, characterized by internal tussles among various camps within the party, including those led by Miles Sampa, Given Lubinda, and Robert Chabinga. This internal discord, which has seen courtrooms replace party conferences and personality politics overshadow policy discussions, is a direct consequence of the party's failure to rebuild its institutions and redefine itself after its 2021 electoral defeat.

The extent of the PF's fragmentation became starkly evident in the lead-up to the 2026 elections. While reports in April 2026 suggested Willah J. Mudolo was emerging as a frontrunner within the PF, aiming to champion renewal and unity, conflicting information from May 2026 indicated that a faction led by Miles Sampa had initially chosen Chitalu Chilufya as its presidential candidate before withdrawing from the 2026 race entirely. Chilufya subsequently withdrew his candidacy, citing ongoing legal challenges within the party. Adding to the complexity, in June 2025, Sampa's faction of the PF formally joined the UPND Alliance, further weakening the traditional opposition stronghold. This series of events underscores the severe leadership crisis and deep divisions that currently plague the Patriotic Front, significantly hindering its ability to mount a credible challenge in the upcoming elections.

The Broader Opposition: Disunity and Diminished Space

Beyond the internal turmoil of the Patriotic Front, Zambia's broader opposition landscape is characterized by a multitude of parties that are largely unfocused and lack national appeal. Attempts at forming broad alliances have yielded limited success. The Tonse Alliance, which had brought together over 11 political parties and was set to feature Lungu as its presidential candidate before his disqualification, now faces a leadership vacuum and its prospects for the 2026 polls appear slim. History suggests that a divided opposition rarely succeeds in African political contexts, a lesson that seems increasingly pertinent for Zambia.

Moreover, opposition parties face systemic challenges that constrain their ability to operate effectively. Reports indicate that opposition leaders and members frequently experience harassment, arbitrary arrests, and detention for their peaceful political activities. Police often withhold permits for opposition rallies, and restrictive laws continue to narrow the political space and stifle online speech. The ruling UPND government has also drawn criticism for allegedly employing tactics reminiscent of its predecessors, such as arresting individuals for "defamation of the president" and disrupting media outlets that feature opposition figures. These actions, coupled with concerns over judicial independence following Lungu's disqualification, raise questions about the fairness of political competition and the overall health of Zambia's democratic processes.

The Ruling Party's Dominance and Public Expectations

In contrast to the disarray within the opposition, the ruling UPND, led by President Hakainde Hichilema, maintains a strong position, having secured a landslide victory in 2021 with 59% of the vote. Hichilema came to power on a wave of public discontent with the previous administration's economic mismanagement and corruption, promising economic recovery, institutional reforms, and improved governance. His administration has pointed to some successes, including the stabilization of economic indicators such as inflation and the strengthening of the Kwacha. The UPND also heads into the 2026 elections as a coalition of 15 political parties, a significant expansion from its 2021 composition.

However, Hichilema's government is not without its own challenges and criticisms. Public dissatisfaction persists regarding high living costs, limited employment opportunities, and the slow pace of economic relief. Concerns have also been raised about the UPND's commitment to democratic reforms, particularly in areas like the Public Order Act and access to information. Despite these concerns, the fragmented nature of the opposition and its struggle for cohesion may inadvertently bolster the UPND's advantage in the upcoming elections.

A Critical Juncture for Zambian Democracy

Zambia stands at a critical juncture as it approaches the 2026 general elections. The absence of Edgar Lungu has exposed deep-seated weaknesses within the Patriotic Front, highlighting the perils of a political movement built around a charismatic leader rather than strong institutional foundations. The broader opposition remains fragmented and faces significant hurdles in mounting a unified and effective challenge to the incumbent government.

The coming year will be crucial not only for the survival and potential resurgence of opposition politics in Zambia but also for the country's multiparty democracy itself. If the opposition fails to resolve its internal divisions and articulate a compelling alternative vision, there is a risk that Zambia could drift towards a more dominant single-party political landscape, potentially eroding democratic checks and balances. The ability of the opposition to find its footing, identify cohesive leadership, and advocate effectively for the interests of Zambians will be paramount in shaping the nation's democratic future.