Ethiopian Elections Loom Amidst Tigray's Exclusion, Threatening Fragile Peace

ADDIS ABABA – Ethiopia is poised to hold its seventh general election on June 1, 2026, a nationwide democratic exercise overshadowed by the conspicuous exclusion of the Tigray region. The decision by the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) to revoke the legal status of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), the dominant political force in the region, has ignited concerns among observers regarding the election's legitimacy, the durability of the two-year-old Pretoria Peace Agreement, and the overall stability of the Horn of Africa nation. As the country prepares for polling, the absence of Tigrayan participation underscores deep-seated political divisions and signals a precarious path forward for national unity.

A Nation Prepares, a Region Excluded

The NEBE has declared its preparations complete for the upcoming polls, with Chairperson Melatwork Hailu affirming that voter registration, candidate filings, and the distribution of electoral materials have been finalized. Across much of the country, political parties have engaged in campaigning, utilizing allocated airtime and public debate forums to reach the electorate. More than 50 million people have reportedly registered to vote for representatives in the House of Peoples' Representatives and regional councils.

However, the narrative of a fully inclusive democratic process is complicated by the situation in Tigray. In a pivotal move on May 14, 2025, the NEBE effectively banned the TPLF, citing the party's failure to conduct a mandatory general assembly, a legal requirement for political organizations under Ethiopian electoral law. This decision means that the northernmost region of Tigray, still reeling from a devastating two-year conflict, will largely be absent from the national electoral map. The exclusion is not merely a procedural matter; it effectively removes the primary political vehicle through which many Tigrayans could participate in federal politics, raising fundamental questions about their representation within the constitutional system.

The Unraveling Accord and Dual Administrations

The roots of Tigray's exclusion trace back to the civil war that erupted in November 2020, pitting the federal government against the TPLF, a party that had historically played a dominant role in Ethiopian politics since 1991. The conflict, which cost hundreds of thousands of lives and displaced millions, formally concluded with the signing of the Pretoria Peace Agreement in November 2022. This accord was intended to usher in an era of peace and stability, establishing an interim regional administration in Tigray as a transitional governing body.

Initially, Getachew Reda headed this interim administration. However, internal rifts within the TPLF leadership led to his expulsion, alongside nearly 15 other party members, in 2024. Subsequently, in late April 2026, the TPLF unilaterally reinstated its pre-war leadership and the Tigray State Council, defying the federal government's extension of the interim administration's term. This move has resulted in the emergence of two rival authorities claiming legitimacy in Tigray, further destabilizing the region's political environment. The federal government, for its part, has been accused of attempting to weaken the TPLF's dominance by tacitly supporting other Tigrayan opposition groups, including Getachew Reda's Simret party, whose registration was permitted by the NEBE despite the TPLF ban. These actions suggest a coordinated effort to cultivate a more compliant political force in Tigray.

Furthermore, critical elements of the Pretoria Agreement remain unfulfilled. The full demobilization of the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) has not occurred, and hotly contested territories, particularly Western Tigray, continue to be occupied by Amhara forces. Tens of thousands of internally displaced persons from these areas remain unable to return to their homes, highlighting a persistent humanitarian crisis that complicates any prospect of equitable electoral participation.

Echoes of Conflict: Risks to Peace and Stability

The decision to proceed with national elections while Tigray remains excluded carries significant risks for the country's fragile peace and regional stability. Observers warn that the TPLF's ban and the lack of comprehensive political inclusion could reignite conflict in the region, unraveling the limited progress achieved since the peace agreement. Indeed, tensions have already manifested in renewed clashes between TPLF and Ethiopian government forces in January 2026, underscoring the volatility of the situation. The "boiling point" reached in relations between the federal government and the TPLF suggests a precarious future.

Beyond the immediate threat of renewed hostilities, the humanitarian situation in Tigray remains dire. Large populations of internally displaced persons face ongoing security risks, making their participation in any electoral process impossible. Conducting elections under such conditions not only disenfranchises a significant portion of the population but also undermines the legitimacy of the entire democratic exercise. The broader Horn of Africa, already strained by conflicts in neighboring Sudan, South Sudan, and Somalia, could face further instability should tensions in Ethiopia escalate.

Questioning Legitimacy and Democratic Credibility

The upcoming general election has drawn criticism from various quarters regarding its credibility and fairness. Experts describe the polls as likely to be among the "least competitive" since multi-party democracy was introduced in 1991, noting a trend where elections primarily serve to reinforce the incumbent government's power rather than offering genuine political choice. The exclusion of Tigray from the voting process is a central concern, raising fundamental questions about the legitimacy of a government elected without the participation of an entire regional state.

Opposition parties, many of whom faced obstacles ranging from bureaucratic hurdles to state-sponsored violence, have struggled to present genuine alternatives. Some have opted to boycott parts of the election, arguing that the system is fundamentally flawed and participation would only legitimize a compromised process. Reports indicate that civic space and media freedom have diminished significantly in the run-up to the election, with restrictions on human rights organizations and journalists. Such conditions lead critics to suggest that the election, rather than being a true democratic exercise, may instead function as a "formal ratification of a political monopoly." Concerns have also been raised that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, whose Prosperity Party is widely expected to secure a decisive victory, may use a renewed mandate to pursue constitutional reforms that could further strengthen central authority.

Ethiopia at a Critical Juncture

As Ethiopia approaches its June 1, 2026, general election, the nation stands at a critical juncture. The exclusion of Tigray from the electoral process, coupled with lingering disputes over the Pretoria Peace Agreement and a constricted democratic space, presents formidable challenges to national cohesion and long-term stability. While the NEBE emphasizes its readiness to conduct the elections, the absence of meaningful participation from one of the country's most historically significant regions raises profound questions about the representativeness and legitimacy of the outcomes.

The path chosen in the coming months will significantly influence whether Ethiopia can genuinely consolidate its democratic institutions, heal from past conflicts, and foster inclusive governance, or whether it risks deepening existing fault lines and jeopardizing the fragile peace achieved following years of devastating conflict. The world watches as Ethiopia navigates these complex internal dynamics, with the future of its federal system and its place in a volatile region hanging in the balance.