Poland, Baltic States Edge Closer to Abandoning Land Mine Treaty, Citing Russian Threat

In a move signaling heightened security concerns, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are advancing towards withdrawing from the international agreement banning anti-personnel mines, commonly known as the Ottawa Treaty. Defense ministers from the four nations have recommended that their respective countries abandon the treaty, citing escalating military threats from Russia and Belarus. This decision reflects a growing apprehension among NATO member states bordering Russia, prompting a reevaluation of defense strategies.

Security Concerns Drive Treaty Withdrawal

The defense ministers of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia released a joint statement on Tuesday, March 18, 2025, asserting that the security situation in the region has "fundamentally deteriorated" since the treaty was ratified in 1999. They emphasized that "military threats to NATO member states bordering Russia and Belarus have significantly increased." The statement underscores the perceived need for these nations to have the flexibility to employ all available means to defend their territory.

The Ottawa Treaty, signed in 1997 and enforced in 1999, has over 160 signatories. However, key nations like the United States, China, India, Pakistan, South Korea, and Russia have not joined the agreement. The treaty aims to eliminate anti-personnel landmines due to their indiscriminate nature and the long-term danger they pose to civilians.

A Political Signal to Moscow

The decision to withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty is viewed as a political message to Moscow, demonstrating the readiness of these nations to defend their borders. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk had previously indicated Poland's intention to initiate steps to leave the treaty. The coordinated action by Poland and the Baltic states highlights a unified regional approach to security concerns.

Estonia's Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur stated that while withdrawing from the treaty, the countries have no immediate plans to develop, stockpile, or use previously banned anti-personnel landmines. He affirmed their commitment to upholding international humanitarian law and protecting civilians, even after withdrawing from the Ottawa Convention.

"Eastern Shield" Project and Mine Production

Poland is planning to reinforce its borders with Russia and Belarus through the "Eastern Shield" project, which may include the deployment of minefields. Deputy Defense Minister Paweł Bejda announced Poland's intention to restart domestic production of anti-personnel mines, potentially producing up to a million of these weapons. He stated that Poland has "no choice" but to withdraw from the convention due to the "very real and very serious threat" at its frontiers.

Bejda indicated that state-owned arms producer PGZ would be involved in producing "several hundred thousand, we can say a million" anti-personnel mines within eight or nine months. Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz clarified that the withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention requires approval from the Cabinet, parliament, and president, followed by notification to the United Nations, a process that could take around six months.

Concerns and Humanitarian Commitments

The use of landmines is controversial due to their indiscriminate nature and the risk they pose to civilians long after conflicts end. Despite their intention to leave the treaty, Poland and the Baltic states have affirmed their commitment to international humanitarian law, including the protection of civilians during armed conflict.

International watchdogs have reported the active use of landmines in 2023 and 2024 by Russia, Myanmar, Iran, and North Korea. This underscores the ongoing global challenge of landmine proliferation and use, even as many nations adhere to the Ottawa Treaty.

Implications for Regional Security

The decision by Poland and the Baltic states to withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty reflects a significant shift in their approach to regional security. By prioritizing national defense in the face of perceived threats from Russia and Belarus, these nations are signaling their readiness to employ all available means to protect their sovereignty.

While the withdrawal from the treaty may raise concerns about the potential humanitarian impact of landmine use, the countries have emphasized their commitment to upholding international humanitarian law. The situation highlights the complex balance between national security concerns and humanitarian obligations in an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape.