European Anxieties Mount: Majority See High Risk of War with Russia, Poll Reveals

A new comprehensive survey indicates a significant majority of citizens across several European Union nations now perceive a high risk of war with Russia in the coming years, underscoring a continent grappling with heightened geopolitical tensions and profound doubts about its defensive capabilities. The poll, conducted by Cluster 17 and published in the French international affairs journal Le Grand Continent, found that 51% of respondents believe there is a "high" or "very high" risk of their country going to war with Russia. This widespread apprehension reflects a marked shift in public opinion, fueled by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and recent assertive rhetoric from Moscow, pointing to a Europe increasingly conscious of its vulnerabilities in a rapidly changing global order.

The Shifting European Psyche

The study, which surveyed nearly 10,000 individuals across nine EU member states—France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland, Portugal, Croatia, Belgium, and the Netherlands—at the end of November, reveals a profound transformation in how Europeans view their security landscape. More than three-and-a-half years into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the conflict continues to reshape strategic perceptions across the continent. The finding that over half of Europeans anticipate a direct conflict with Russia marks a stark departure from previous eras, signaling a broad acceptance of direct confrontation as a tangible possibility. This sentiment is further amplified by recent warnings from military officials, such as France's top general, Fabien Mandon, who last month suggested Russia was preparing for a new confrontation by 2030. Russian President Vladimir Putin also recently stated that if Europe desires war, Russia is "ready right now." This exchange of rhetoric, coupled with the grinding conflict in Eastern Europe, has evidently cemented a pervasive sense of unease among the populace.

Geographical Divides in Perception

The perceived risk of open conflict with Russia is not uniform across the European Union, displaying significant variations tied to geographical proximity and historical context. Countries bordering Russia and its ally Belarus exhibit the highest levels of concern. In Poland, for instance, a striking 77% of respondents consider the risk of war to be high or very high. This figure underscores the acute awareness in frontline states of the potential for escalation. Similarly, in Finland, approximately 80% express concern over the escalation of the Ukraine war, with 68% specifically worried about a potential Russian attack on their country.

Further west, the apprehension remains significant, though slightly tempered. In France, 54% of those surveyed share the belief of a high or very high risk of war, while in Germany, this figure stands at 51%. This indicates that even major Western European powers, traditionally more insulated from direct Russian aggression, are increasingly internalizing the threat. In stark contrast, some Southern European nations appear less immediately concerned. In Italy, a substantial 65% of respondents consider the risk of war to be low or nonexistent, highlighting a notable divergence in threat perception across the continent. Portugal also shows a lower concern at 39%, while Italy registers 34%. This geographical gradient suggests that direct exposure and historical experiences play a crucial role in shaping public attitudes toward the Russian threat.

Doubts in Defense Capabilities and Broader Threats

Beyond the direct threat of war with Russia, the survey also uncovers a widespread lack of confidence in national military capabilities across Europe. A significant 69% of respondents across the nine countries expressed doubts about their nation's ability to defend itself against Russian aggression. This pervasive skepticism highlights concerns about military readiness and potential vulnerabilities. France, the sole country in the survey with nuclear weapons, showed the least pessimism, with 44% believing their country is "quite" or "fairly" capable of defense. However, this still represents a minority view, even in a nuclear-armed state. At the other end of the spectrum, countries like Belgium, Italy, and Portugal registered overwhelmingly low confidence, with 87%, 85%, and 85% respectively believing their nations incapable of defending themselves.

Interestingly, while Russia is perceived as the primary state-level military threat, the survey revealed that "terrorism" remains the most immediate concern for European public opinion. Across the nine surveyed countries, 63% of respondents considered the risk of open war with "terrorist" groups to be "high" or "very high." This indicates a dual-layered security concern, with both state-sponsored and non-state threats occupying significant portions of the public consciousness. In contrast, fears of conflict with China were markedly lower, with 81% of Europeans believing there is little to no chance of a war with China in the coming years.

The Shadow of Geopolitical Instability

The poll's findings are set against a backdrop of complex and evolving geopolitical dynamics. Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine served as a "watershed moment" for public perceptions of EU security and defense, accelerating existing trends of concern rather than initiating entirely new ones. European publics have generally shown strong support for EU efforts in security and defense, seeing them as complementary to NATO. The survey also touches upon the evolving relationship with the United States. Nearly half of Europeans (48%) now consider former U.S. President Donald Trump an "enemy of Europe," a perception that has hardened since late 2024. Despite this, the U.S. is still widely seen as a critical strategic partner, with many Europeans advocating for a pragmatic approach to Washington. This nuanced view reflects a desire for European strategic autonomy while acknowledging the enduring importance of transatlantic ties. The prolonged conflict in Ukraine, now in its third year, continues to challenge the foundational assumptions of European security, compelling EU and NATO states to view Russia as a fundamental and enduring threat.

Conclusion

The recent survey paints a sobering picture of a European continent increasingly wary and conscious of its vulnerabilities. With half of its citizens foreseeing a high risk of war with Russia and a significant majority doubting their own nations' defensive capacities, the results underscore a profound shift in the collective European psyche. This heightened sense of danger, driven by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and an assertive Russia, signals a new geopolitical reality where direct confrontation is no longer a distant prospect but a tangible concern. While concerns vary geographically, the overall trend points to a continent grappling with insecurity on multiple fronts, from state-level aggression to persistent threats of terrorism. These findings carry significant implications for future European defense policies, strategic alliances, and the ongoing efforts to forge greater unity and resilience in the face of escalating global instability. Europe stands at a critical juncture, navigating an era defined by anxiety and the urgent need to recalibrate its security posture for a challenging future.