Far-Right AfD Gains Ground in German State Elections Amidst Mounting Scandals

Berlin, Germany – The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has solidified its position as a major political force in Germany, achieving significant electoral successes in recent state elections, particularly across the eastern states. This surge in support comes despite a series of high-profile controversies and allegations that have drawn widespread condemnation and scrutiny, presenting a complex challenge to Germany's established political order. The paradox of the AfD's growth amidst scandal highlights deep-seated disaffection within the electorate and raises pressing questions about the future trajectory of German democracy.

Electoral Breakthroughs in the East

The AfD's most prominent victories materialized in the eastern German states during the September 2024 regional elections. In Thuringia, the party achieved a historic first, securing 32.8% of the vote, making it the strongest political force in the state. This marked the first time a far-right party had emerged victorious in a German state election since the end of World War II, representing a substantial increase of 9.4 percentage points from its 2019 performance. Björn Höcke, a prominent AfD leader, declared the result a "historic success".

Neighboring Saxony also saw a strong showing for the AfD on the same election day. The party increased its vote share by 3.1 percentage points to 30.6%, coming in a close second behind the long-dominant Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which won 31.9%. Just weeks later, in the Brandenburg state election held on September 22, 2024, the AfD garnered 29.2% of the vote, a gain of 5.7 percentage points, narrowly missing a first-place finish to the Social Democratic Party (SPD). The SPD's late comeback in Brandenburg was attributed partly to tactical voting aimed at preventing an AfD victory. Ahead of the Brandenburg vote, polls had indicated the AfD was leading.

These state-level triumphs were foreshadowed by the European Parliament elections in June 2024, where the AfD achieved a record 15.9% of the national vote, placing second overall in Germany. Notably, in the former East German states, the party emerged as the dominant force, securing 30.7% of the vote. This consistent pattern of strong performance in eastern Germany underscores the region's increasing political divergence from the western states. The AfD's appeal in these areas is often linked to ongoing economic and integration challenges since reunification, alongside a perceived inclination among East German voters towards strongman leadership.

A Stream of Controversies

The AfD's electoral gains have unfolded against a backdrop of significant scandals that have sparked public outrage and intensified calls for the party's legal scrutiny. In January 2024, a report by investigative journalists revealed details of a meeting where AfD members, alongside right-wing extremists, discussed a "remigration masterplan" involving the mass deportation of foreign-born individuals, including German citizens. This revelation triggered widespread protests across Germany, with hundreds of thousands demonstrating against the party and in defense of democracy.

Further damaging allegations surfaced in the run-up to the European Parliament elections. The party's lead candidate, Maximilian Krah, faced accusations of his aide spying for China, leading to the aide's arrest. Krah himself drew criticism for controversial remarks concerning the Schutzstaffel (SS), the Nazi Party's main paramilitary organization. These incidents led to a temporary dip in the AfD's national poll numbers, though analysts observed that such scandals often fail to significantly deter the party's dedicated supporters.

More recently, in early 2026, the AfD has been embroiled in nepotism allegations. Accusations have emerged that lawmakers have been granting taxpayer-funded positions to relatives of their colleagues, particularly in states like Saxony-Anhalt and Lower Saxony. This practice directly contradicts the party's self-proclaimed mission to combat political corruption and has even drawn internal criticism from within the AfD itself. Beyond these specific instances, domestic intelligence agencies have classified the AfD in Brandenburg as a right-wing extremist organization, and a court ruling in 2024 upheld the surveillance of the party as a suspected extremist entity.

Unpacking the AfD's Enduring Appeal

Despite these significant controversies, the AfD's ability to consistently attract and retain voters points to a complex interplay of factors. A primary driver of their success is widespread voter discontent with mainstream political parties and the federal government. Economic concerns, including inflation and energy costs, coupled with disillusionment over strained public finances, have created fertile ground for an insurgent party offering seemingly straightforward solutions.

The AfD has effectively capitalized on anxieties surrounding immigration. The party has consistently adopted a stringent anti-immigration stance, framing it as a security threat and presenting itself as the only political force willing to take a firm and consistent line on the issue. This rhetoric resonates strongly with a segment of the electorate, particularly in regions where concerns about integration are pronounced.

Furthermore, the AfD has demonstrated a sophisticated understanding of modern communication channels. The party has leveraged social media platforms such as TikTok and Instagram to effectively disseminate its message and engage with a younger demographic, contributing to its growing support among these voters. Political analysts also note the AfD's strategy of "normalization," through which it gradually mainstreamed previously taboo positions, making them more acceptable to a broader audience.

In eastern Germany, where the AfD consistently performs strongest, there is a pervasive sentiment of being overlooked by the federal government, especially concerning migration policies and regional realities. This historical context, rooted in the post-reunification experience and a legacy of "pseudo-democracy" that encouraged mass street protests over traditional political engagement, contributes to the AfD's ability to mobilize disaffected citizens and non-voters. For many, supporting the AfD is not merely a protest vote but stems from a solid constituency that views the party as the only viable option.

The Strain on the 'Cordon Sanitaire'

The AfD's continued rise has placed immense pressure on Germany's established political parties and their long-standing "cordon sanitaire" — the collective refusal to cooperate with the far-right in forming governing coalitions. Despite the AfD's first-place finish in Thuringia, all other democratic parties have firmly ruled out forming a coalition with them, making government formation significantly more challenging and potentially leading to minority governments.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition government, already weakened by poor showings in the recent state elections, faces increased internal tensions and diminished political capital. The AfD's growing influence also has broader implications for Germany's role within the European Union, contributing to a sense of political fragmentation and raising concerns about the stability of the country's political center. In response to the AfD's pressure, mainstream parties, particularly the CDU, have shown signs of adopting stricter immigration policies, reflecting the far-right's impact on the national political agenda.

Conclusion

The AfD's ascent in German state elections, in defiance of numerous scandals and allegations, marks a pivotal moment in the nation's post-war political history. Its growing strength, particularly in the eastern states, underscores a significant shift in voter sentiment driven by economic anxieties, immigration concerns, and a profound distrust of traditional political establishments. While mainstream parties maintain their resolve to isolate the AfD, the practical challenges of forming stable governments without engaging with such a substantial electoral force are becoming increasingly apparent. The continued resilience of the AfD, despite calls for its investigation and even prohibition, poses a fundamental test to Germany's democratic institutions and its commitment to upholding a liberal, inclusive society. The trajectory of German politics will largely depend on how effectively established parties can address the underlying grievances that fuel the AfD's support, and whether the "cordon sanitaire" can withstand the sustained pressure of a deeply polarized electorate.