German Voter Trust in U.S. and Israel Declines Amid Shifting Geopolitical Landscape

A recent survey indicates a notable decrease in the level of trust German voters place in both the United States and Israel, reflecting evolving perspectives on international partnerships and specific foreign policy decisions. The shift comes amid ongoing global conflicts and a changing domestic political landscape in Germany.

The ARD DeutschlandTrend public opinion poll, conducted in early June by Infratest dimap, surveyed 1,292 German voters on their views regarding Germany's international relations and domestic politics. The results reveal a nuanced picture of German public sentiment towards key allies and global actors.

Declining Trust in Israel

The poll highlights a significant drop in the percentage of Germans who view Israel as a reliable partner. In October 2024, 27% of Germans considered Israel a trustworthy partner, but that number has fallen to just 16% in the latest survey. This decline is largely attributed to differing opinions on Israel's military actions in the Gaza Strip following attacks by Hamas in the fall of 2023. A substantial 63% of German citizens believe that Israel's response in Gaza has been excessive, while only 18% view it as appropriate.

This shift in public opinion has also impacted views on arms exports to Israel. Only 17% of respondents believe that the German government should continue approving arms exports to Israel without changes. Germany is, after the U.S., the most significant arms supplier to Israel, making this sentiment particularly noteworthy. Furthermore, nearly equal numbers of citizens blame both Israel (69%) and Hamas (71%) for the humanitarian situation of the Palestinian civilian population in Gaza. This marks a change from previous polls where Hamas was blamed more than Israel.

Wavering Confidence in the United States

While not as drastic as the decline in trust towards Israel, the survey also indicates some wavering in German confidence in the United States as a reliable partner. The poll was conducted after Donald Trump publicly humiliated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in the Oval Office. While the specific numbers regarding overall trust in the U.S. weren't available, the poll explored expectations for the meeting between Chancellor Merz and President Trump. 46% of respondents believed that the German chancellor would succeed in establishing a good relationship with the U.S. president, while 44% believed that he would not.

A Pew Research Center study from November 2024, before the U.S. election, showed that while most Americans and Germans had a positive view of relations between their countries, there were differences in views on topics including bilateral partnerships, conflicts around the world and the military threat posed by China. The study also revealed partisan divisions within both countries on various issues. For example, about two-thirds of Democrats (66%) viewed Germany as a partner in dealing with China, compared with half of Republicans. In Germany, there were similar divisions, with majorities of AfD supporters saying the U.S. is not a partner on nearly all issues.

Impact of Domestic Politics

The survey also sheds light on the domestic political landscape in Germany. Since May, a new federal government consisting of the CDU/CSU and the SPD has been in power. Currently, 40% of citizens are satisfied with the first weeks of the coalition's work. This is slightly lower than the 46% satisfaction rate at the beginning of 2022 with the previous government of the SPD, the Greens, and the FDP. However, Chancellor Friedrich Merz has gained significantly in popularity since taking office.

The rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party also plays a role in shaping public opinion on international relations. The Pew Research Center study indicated that 44% of Germans who support the AfD say U.S.-German relations are bad. Furthermore, the Tagesspiegel news outlet published a poll last week showing that 52% of AfD voters oppose further arms supplies to Israel.

Germany's "Staatsräson" and its Limits

Germany's relationship with Israel is often described as a "Staatsräson," a core principle of German foreign policy rooted in the country's historical responsibility for the Holocaust. This principle, articulated by former Chancellor Angela Merkel, implies that Israel's security is non-negotiable for Germany. However, recent events and public opinion shifts suggest that there are limits to this unwavering support.

As highlighted by the UN General Assembly vote on a resolution calling for a ceasefire in late October, where Germany abstained, the country's "Staatsräson" is ultimately based on its own understanding of its national interest. This understanding may lead Germany to take positions that diverge from Israel's wishes, particularly when balancing its relationship with other important partners in the region and the broader international community.

Implications for German Foreign Policy

The declining trust in the U.S. and Israel, coupled with domestic political considerations, presents challenges for German foreign policy. The German government must navigate these shifting public sentiments while maintaining its commitment to international partnerships and its historical responsibility towards Israel.

Chancellor Merz faces the task of managing relations with the U.S. under President Trump, while also addressing concerns about Israel's actions in Gaza. The government's decision on arms exports to Israel will be a key test of its commitment to the "Staatsräson" in the face of growing public opposition.

Conclusion

The ARD DeutschlandTrend survey reveals a complex and evolving landscape of German public opinion on international relations. The decline in trust towards the U.S. and Israel reflects a combination of factors, including differing views on foreign policy decisions, domestic political considerations, and a desire to balance Germany's national interests with its international obligations. As Germany navigates these challenges, its foreign policy will likely be shaped by the need to address public concerns while upholding its core principles and commitments.