Merz Faces Uphill Battle Despite Election Victory: Why Germany's Incoming Chancellor Remains Unpopular

Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), is poised to become Germany's next chancellor after the CDU/CSU secured a plurality in the recent federal election. However, despite this apparent victory, Merz faces a significant challenge: widespread unpopularity among the German populace. As he prepares to take office on May 6, 2025, analysts are examining the reasons behind his struggle to connect with voters and the implications for his chancellorship.

A Departure from Merkel's Consensus

One of the primary factors contributing to Merz's unpopularity is his stark contrast to his predecessor, Angela Merkel. Merkel, who led Germany for 16 years, was known for her calm, consensus-building approach and centrist policies. This earned her broad support across the political spectrum and the affectionate nickname "Mutti," or "Mom," of the nation. Merz, on the other hand, has adopted a more confrontational style and steered the CDU toward the right. This shift has alienated some traditional CDU voters while failing to win over significant numbers of supporters from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).

Gender and Generational Divides

Polling data reveals significant disparities in Merz's support among different demographic groups. He draws strong support from male voters, particularly those over 45, but faces considerable opposition from women, who view his political style as arrogant and dismissive. A recent Ipsos survey indicated that only 15% of female voters consider him the most suitable candidate for chancellor, compared to 21% of men. His backing among young voters is even lower, at just 13%. This gender and generational divide poses a major challenge for Merz as he seeks to build a broad base of support for his policies.

Ties to Big Business

Merz's background as a corporate lawyer and his ties to the financial sector have also fueled criticism, particularly from left-leaning politicians. His role as chairman of BlackRock Germany, from 2016 to 2020, has drawn scrutiny, with critics arguing that he would prioritize the interests of lobby groups over public welfare. These concerns have resonated with voters who are wary of the influence of big business on politics.

The AfD Dilemma

Another factor contributing to Merz's unpopularity is his handling of the AfD. In an attempt to appeal to voters concerned about immigration, Merz introduced anti-immigration legislation in parliament and sought to pass it with the AfD's support. This move sparked widespread protests and accusations that he was normalizing far-right politics and breaking the post-war consensus against cooperating with extremist parties. Although the bill ultimately failed, the controversy damaged Merz's reputation and raised questions about his judgment. While Merz has repeatedly stated that the CDU will not form a coalition with the AfD, his attempts to court their voters have alienated more moderate segments of the electorate.

Policy Challenges and Coalition Constraints

Even with his party's election victory, Merz faces significant policy challenges and constraints. The CDU/CSU secured only 28.5% of the vote, its second-worst result ever, necessitating a coalition government. The most likely scenario is a "grand coalition" with the Social Democratic Party (SPD), a configuration that has governed Germany several times under Angela Merkel. However, coalition negotiations are expected to be difficult, as the CDU and SPD hold differing views on key issues such as migration, economic policy, and the national debt. Merz's more conservative stance on social and economic issues may clash with the SPD's more left-leaning agenda, potentially leading to compromises that could further erode his support among his base.

A Weakened Leader?

Adding to Merz's challenges are recent polls indicating a decline in his approval ratings. An April 2025 Deutschlandtrend poll showed his support dropping 10 percentage points from February, with only 25% of Germans approving of his performance. This slump comes amid criticism from within his own party, with some members of the CDU's youth organization accusing him of yielding to the SPD's demands during coalition talks and failing to deliver on promises to move the party to the right. These internal divisions further weaken Merz's position as he prepares to take office.

An Uncertain Future

As Friedrich Merz prepares to assume the chancellorship, he faces a formidable task in uniting a divided country and addressing Germany's pressing economic and social challenges. His unpopularity, stemming from his leadership style, policy positions, and handling of the AfD, poses a significant obstacle to his ability to govern effectively. Whether he can overcome these challenges and build a broader base of support remains to be seen. His success, and Germany's future direction, hinges on his ability to bridge divides, navigate complex coalition negotiations, and demonstrate that he can lead the country with competence and vision.