Sudan Grapples with Protracted Conflict, Humanitarian Crisis as War Nears Second Anniversary

Sudan remains mired in a devastating civil war nearly two years after fighting erupted in April 2023, with little prospect of a near-term resolution and a growing risk of the country's fragmentation. While the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have recently achieved some key victories, including retaking control of the capital Khartoum, the conflict with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues to rage across the country, fueling a dire humanitarian crisis and raising concerns about regional stability.

Battlefield Dynamics and Political Landscape

The war began over disagreements regarding the integration of the RSF into the armed forces, pitting the SAF, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, against the RSF, commanded by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti. Despite recent gains by the SAF, neither side has been able to deliver a decisive blow, and both continue to control significant territory. Fighting persists in the Darfur region, Kordofan, and the Gezira state, a crucial agricultural hub.

The SAF's recapture of Khartoum, including the presidential palace and the airport, marks a strategic and symbolic victory. The army hopes this will shift battlefield momentum and strengthen its position in potential peace negotiations, which it had previously refused to engage in. Control of Khartoum also allows the SAF to exert better control over supply lines and influence international perceptions.

However, the RSF has signed a "founding charter" for a breakaway government, a move that has sparked "grave concerns" from the UN Security Council and raised fears of Sudan's partition, similar to South Sudan's secession in 2011. The declaration by SAF to amend the 2019 constitutional declaration to give more power to the military-dominated Sovereign Council further complicates prospects for a political resolution.

A Humanitarian Catastrophe

The ongoing conflict has triggered one of the world's largest humanitarian crises. In January 2025, the UN estimated that 30.4 million people in Sudan, over half the population, require humanitarian assistance. This includes 16 million children. Acute food insecurity has more than tripled since the conflict began, affecting over half the population, with nearly 25 million people suffering from dire food shortages and 600,000 on the brink of starvation. Famine conditions have been confirmed in parts of North Darfur.

The conflict has also led to mass displacement. As of January 2025, there were an estimated 11.5 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Sudan, 53% of whom are children. Since April 2023, over 3.5 million people have fled to neighboring countries. This makes it one of the largest displacement crises globally in less than two years.

The health system has largely collapsed, with hospitals destroyed or occupied. Millions of children are in urgent need of assistance, and over 3 million are at risk of deadly epidemics due to collapsing health systems. Gender-based violence has reached alarming levels, disproportionately affecting women and children, with over 12.2 million at risk.

Humanitarian access remains a critical challenge. Both sides have been accused of blocking aid, and aid workers have been targeted. In September 2024, the Sudan NGO forum reported that nearly 7 million people could not access humanitarian assistance due to access constraints.

Regional Implications and International Response

Sudan's conflict has significant implications for neighboring countries, including Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia, and South Sudan, which are already facing their own economic and security challenges. The influx of refugees is straining resources and exacerbating existing tensions. The IMF has warned of heavy economic damage to these countries. There are also concerns about the conflict spilling over into neighboring countries and fueling regional rivalries.

The African Union (AU) has described the situation in Sudan as the "worst humanitarian crisis in the world." The AU, along with the UN, the EU, and other international actors, have been involved in efforts to mediate a resolution to the conflict. However, these efforts have been hampered by a lack of coordination and the competing interests of external actors.

Several Security Council members have emphasized the need for a ceasefire, unfettered humanitarian access, and respect for international humanitarian law. However, divisions within the international community, including a Russian veto of a draft resolution aimed at protecting civilians, have hindered a more robust response.

Uncertain Future

As the war in Sudan nears its second anniversary, the future remains uncertain. While the SAF has made some gains, a decisive military victory for either side appears unlikely. The risk of the country's fragmentation is growing, and the humanitarian crisis continues to worsen.

Some analysts suggest that the recent battlefield developments may create an opportunity for renewed peace talks. However, significant obstacles remain, including the deep-seated animosity between the warring parties and the influence of external actors.

Without a concerted effort to address the underlying political issues, ensure humanitarian access, and promote a unified approach by the international community, Sudan faces the prospect of a protracted conflict, further suffering for its people, and increased instability in the region.