Will Hamas Relinquish Power in Gaza? A Complex Question of Survival and Strategy

The question of whether Hamas will relinquish power in the Gaza Strip is a complex one, fraught with political, military, and humanitarian considerations. After years of de facto governance and recent devastating conflict with Israel, the possibility of Hamas stepping down, either voluntarily or under pressure, is a subject of intense debate and speculation. While some officials have signaled a willingness to cede control under certain conditions, the reality on the ground suggests a more nuanced and challenging scenario.

Declining Popularity and Mounting Pressure

Hamas's grip on power in Gaza has been complicated by declining popularity among the Gazan population. Economic hardships and the destruction caused by the ongoing conflict with Israel have contributed to waning support for the movement. Polls conducted in 2024 showed a significant drop in support for Hamas's actions, with only 39% of Gazans backing their actions against Israel in September, a sharp contrast to previous levels. An earlier poll in March indicated that a mere 35% of Gaza residents supported the movement. This decline in popularity, coupled with the immense destruction and humanitarian crisis in Gaza, makes it increasingly difficult for Hamas to maintain control.

Adding to the internal pressures, Hamas faces mounting external pressure from regional powers and international stakeholders. While countries like Qatar, Iran, and Turkey have historically supported Hamas, there is a growing international consensus that the Palestinian Authority (PA) should regain control of Gaza. A Gaza-based Palestinian political expert noted that Hamas is under unprecedented pressure from all sides, which may force the group to reconsider its leadership role.

Conditions for Stepping Aside

Despite the challenges, some Hamas officials have indicated a willingness to step down from power in Gaza, signaling a potential shift in strategy. A senior Hamas official based in Turkey stated that Hamas is not clinging to ruling Gaza after the war and that their priority remains the interests of the Palestinian people. He clarified that Hamas would be willing to transfer power to the PA, provided that national rights are preserved.

However, this willingness comes with significant conditions. Hamas insists on the retention of its employees, approximately 40,000 individuals who form the backbone of Gaza's governmental institutions, including healthcare, education, and security. They demand that these employees be integrated into any new administration without discrimination and that their salaries and rights are safeguarded. This issue remains a primary obstacle in reaching a final agreement.

Furthermore, Hamas firmly rejects any move that could lead to the dismantling of its military wing, the Al-Qassam Brigades. While open to cooperating with a new government regarding civilian and administrative affairs, Hamas will not permit any interference in what it considers "resistance activities." The group's spokesperson emphasized that their weapons are not up for negotiation.

Alternative Governance Models

If Hamas were to step down, several governance models have been proposed. One option involves a revitalized Palestinian Authority, with the integration of local elements and the backing of a coalition of Arab and Western countries. This model would require continued military pressure on Hamas to weaken its capabilities while building a governmental and security alternative.

Another proposal involves the creation of a "Palestinian National Management Committee" to take over the enclave during reconstruction. This committee, comprised of independent Palestinian technocrats, would be responsible for overseeing humanitarian aid and managing the Strip's affairs for a temporary period, in preparation for the PA's return.

However, these proposals face significant challenges. The PA demands complete control over Gaza's security apparatus, a condition that Hamas rejects. Moreover, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has consistently opposed the PA taking a leading role in Gaza.

The Role of International Actors

The international community's stance on Hamas's future role in Gaza is crucial. Several European nations have stated that any plan for Gaza must have no role for Hamas, ensure Israel's security, and not displace Palestinians. They advocate for the unity of the West Bank and Gaza under the PA's mandate and have expressed readiness to support plans that achieve these goals.

Egypt has also been actively involved in mediating a solution. Its proposal involves the creation of a committee of technocrats to run Gaza in the war's immediate aftermath, overseeing humanitarian aid and managing the Strip's affairs until the PA can return. However, the Trump administration and Israel have reportedly rejected this proposal.

Hamas's Perspective and Potential for Reconstitution

Despite the pressures and potential shifts in strategy, Hamas remains a significant force in Gaza. Even if weakened militarily, the group will likely attempt to rebuild its military and governance capabilities in the coming years. Some analysts believe that Hamas may eventually be forced to reconsider its leadership role in Gaza but will only make concessions if it receives guarantees to maintain its position in Palestinian politics.

Reports suggest that Hamas's military wing is already regrouping its forces for a potential return to fighting against the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). The group is reportedly asserting administrative control over civilian matters, directing Hamas police forces to secure aid deliveries and calling on students and teachers to return to schools.

Conclusion

The question of whether Hamas will relinquish power in Gaza is far from settled. While the group faces declining popularity, mounting pressure, and the devastation of war, it also possesses a strong desire to maintain its influence and protect its interests. Any transition of power will likely depend on a complex interplay of factors, including guarantees for Hamas employees, the future of its military wing, and the involvement of international actors.

Ultimately, the future of Gaza hinges on finding a solution that addresses the needs and concerns of all parties involved, including the Palestinian people, Hamas, Israel, and the international community. Without a comprehensive and sustainable agreement, the cycle of conflict and instability is likely to continue, further jeopardizing the lives and well-being of the Gazan population.